Coffee World Roundup: October 2026

A record Brazil harvest, lower prices and new rules in Europe.

October 6, 20263 min readBy Bump Coffee

The short version

Arabica futures are trading near $2.95 a pound, way down from record highs above $4.40 in early 2025.
Brazil’s 2026 harvest is a record, but El Niño-linked humidity has people worried about bean quality.
Forecasters expect the world to grow more coffee than it drinks in 2026/27, for the first time in years.
Green coffee is exempt from U.S. import tariffs, and Europe’s deforestation rules kick in December 30.

Here’s what happened in the coffee world in October.

Prices

After two volatile years, coffee prices have come down. Arabica futures on ICE were trading around $2.95 to $2.96 a pound in early October. They topped $4.40 in early 2025, the highest ever. Retail prices lag the futures market by months, so grocery store prices won’t drop right away.

Brazil: record crop, quality concerns

Brazil, the biggest coffee grower on the planet, brought in a record harvest this year. Government agency CONAB projected about 66 million 60-kg bags back in March, and later estimates went even higher. But heavy, El Niño-linked humidity hit during harvest and drying. Brazil’s biggest coffee co-op, Cooxúpé, said it’ll reject beans with “inferior quality standards.” And certified arabica stocks on ICE, the high-grade beans traders can deliver against futures, were near their lowest level in about 27 years in September.

A surplus

For years the world drank more coffee than it grew. Now forecasters expect a surplus. Rabobank projected 7 to 10 million extra bags for 2026/27, and Hedgepoint put it around 8.9 million. More supply usually means steadier prices, as long as the weather cooperates.

Tariffs: coffee is exempt

In November 2025, the U.S. exempted coffee from the import tariffs that hit Brazil and other growers, since very little coffee is grown in the U.S. When new tariffs replaced the old ones in February 2026, green coffee got exempted again. That’s good news for anyone roasting coffee in the U.S.

Europe: deforestation rules

The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is set to kick in December 30, 2026 for most companies (micro and small businesses get until June 30, 2027), after getting pushed back twice. It makes companies selling coffee in Europe prove it wasn’t grown on recently cleared land, down to the exact plot. Doesn’t apply to U.S. sales, but it’s pushing the whole industry to know where its coffee comes from. Shade-grown coffee, grown under trees instead of in place of them, fits well with that.