Field Notes cover: Coffee world, October 2026

October 09, 2026

Coffee World Roundup: October 2026

The short version

Arabica futures are trading near $2.95 a pound, down from record highs above $4.40 in early 2025.
Brazil's 2026 harvest is a record, but El Niño-linked humidity has raised bean quality worries.
Forecasters expect the world to grow more coffee than it drinks in 2026/27, for the first time in years.
Green coffee is exempt from U.S. import tariffs, and the EU's deforestation rules start applying December 30.

Once a month we zoom out from the roaster and look at what's moving in the coffee world. Here's October.

Prices: calmer than last year

After two wild years, coffee prices have come down. Arabica futures on ICE were trading around $2.95 to $2.96 a pound in early October. For context, they topped $4.40 in early 2025, the highest on record. Retail prices tend to lag the futures market by months, so don't expect your grocery store bag to drop overnight.

Brazil: a record crop with a rainy asterisk

Brazil, the world's biggest producer, brought in a record harvest this year. Government agency CONAB projected about 66 million 60-kg bags back in March, and later estimates have run even higher. The catch: heavy, El Niño-linked humidity hit during harvest and drying. Brazil's largest coffee cooperative, Cooxúpé, said it will reject beans with "inferior quality standards." Certified arabica stocks on ICE, the high-grade beans traders can deliver against futures, were near their lowest level in about 27 years in September.

A surplus, finally

After several years where the world drank more coffee than it grew, forecasters now expect a surplus. Rabobank projected 7 to 10 million extra bags for 2026/27, and analysts at Hedgepoint put it around 8.9 million. More supply usually means steadier prices, as long as the weather cooperates.

Tariffs: coffee got a pass

In November 2025, the U.S. exempted coffee from the import tariffs that had hit Brazil and other producers, noting the lack of meaningful domestic coffee production. When new tariffs replaced the old ones in February 2026, green coffee was exempt again. Good news for anyone who roasts coffee in America, which is basically everyone, since the U.S. grows very little of its own.

Europe: deforestation rules on deck

The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is scheduled to apply from December 30, 2026 for most companies (micro and small businesses get until June 30, 2027), after two delays. It requires companies selling coffee in Europe to prove it wasn't grown on recently deforested land, down to the plot where it was farmed. It doesn't apply to U.S. sales, but it's pushing the whole industry toward better farm-level traceability. Shade-grown coffee, grown under trees instead of in place of them, is about as far from deforestation as coffee gets.